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{
  "away": "Alaves",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0221,
  "explanation": "Home win: 44% against a market price of 42% (+2.2%).\nExpected goals Celta Vigo 1.64 – 1.04 Alaves.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 51% (uncertainty ±8.0%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+34% goals at home) adds 2.6 pts to home win.\nRest days (Celta Vigo 3, Alaves 8) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nCelta Vigo missing 2.6 regular starters: M. Roman; Alaves missing 1.4 regular starters: A. Perez takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nCelta Vigo's attack (1.05× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.2%).\nWhat changed since v4:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Alaves 5-3-2, Celta Vigo 3-4-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 45% → 44% (-0.9 pts); Away win 26% → 27% (+1.0 pts).\nTag changed from Value to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1570414,
  "home": "Celta Vigo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "La Liga",
  "league_api_id": 140,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4174,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-140-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.31",
  "prediction_version": 5,
  "probability": 0.4395,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+2.2%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v4:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Alaves 5-3-2, Celta Vigo 3-4-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 45% → 44% (-0.9 pts); Away win 26% → 27% (+1.0 pts).\nTag changed from Value to Avoid."
}