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{
  "away": "Alaves",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0315,
  "explanation": "Home win: 45% against a market price of 42% (+3.2%).\nExpected goals Celta Vigo 1.58 – 0.88 Alaves.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 54% (uncertainty ±6.8%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+34% goals at home) adds 2.9 pts to home win.\nRest days (Celta Vigo 3, Alaves 8) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nCelta Vigo's attack (1.05× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nAlaves's attack (0.94× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Value: our 45% beats the market's 42%.\nWhat changed since v3:\nOur probabilities: Home win 46% → 45% (-1.4 pts); Draw 28% → 29% (+1.3 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 44% → 42%; Draw 29% → 30%.\nTag changed from Avoid to Value.",
  "fixture": 1570414,
  "home": "Celta Vigo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "La Liga",
  "league_api_id": 140,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4174,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-140-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.31",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.4489,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "value",
  "tag_reason": "our 45% beats the market's 42%",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nOur probabilities: Home win 46% → 45% (-1.4 pts); Draw 28% → 29% (+1.3 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 44% → 42%; Draw 29% → 30%.\nTag changed from Avoid to Value."
}