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{
  "away": "Coritiba",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0301,
  "explanation": "Home win: 59% against a market price of 62% (-3.0%).\nExpected goals Atletico-MG 1.88 – 1.38 Coritiba.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±6.8%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+41% goals at home) adds 3.6 pts to home win.\nAtletico-MG missing 6.4 regular starters: A. Franco; Coritiba missing 0.8 regular starters takes 2.2 pts from home win.\nRest days (Atletico-MG 3, Coritiba 5) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nCoritiba's defence (1.11× the league rate against) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.0%).\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Coritiba 4-2-3-1, Atletico-MG 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 61% → 59% (-2.0 pts); Away win 16% → 19% (+2.1 pts).\nTag changed from Banker to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1492411,
  "home": "Atletico-MG",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T21:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie A",
  "league_api_id": 71,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6152,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-71-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.56",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.5851,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.0%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Coritiba 4-2-3-1, Atletico-MG 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 61% → 59% (-2.0 pts); Away win 16% → 19% (+2.1 pts).\nTag changed from Banker to Avoid."
}