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{
  "away": "Dundalk",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0471,
  "explanation": "Home win: 27% against a market price of 22% (+4.7%).\nExpected goals Sligo Rovers 1.56 – 1.42 Dundalk.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±6.4%), so it carries 29% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 2.2 pts to home win.\nRest days (Sligo Rovers 8, Dundalk 14) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nDundalk's defence (1.13× the league rate against) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nSligo Rovers missing 3.3 regular starters; Dundalk missing 0.5 regular starters takes 1.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.7% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Sligo Rovers 4-2-3-1, Dundalk 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 28% → 27% (-1.1 pts); Away win 48% → 49% (+1.1 pts).",
  "fixture": 1492785,
  "home": "Sligo Rovers",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T18:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier Division",
  "league_api_id": 357,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2211,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-357-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "4.08",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.2683,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.7% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Sligo Rovers 4-2-3-1, Dundalk 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 28% → 27% (-1.1 pts); Away win 48% → 49% (+1.1 pts)."
}