Check any pick we ever made

{
  "away": "Rangers",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0403,
  "explanation": "Home win: 16% against a market price of 12% (+4.0%).\nExpected goals Dundee 1.45 – 1.98 Rangers.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 29% (uncertainty ±7.2%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRangers's attack (1.37× the league rate) takes 2.9 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nRangers's defence (0.87× the league rate against) takes 1.3 pts from home win.\nDundee's defence (1.10× the league rate against) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.0% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Rangers 4-2-3-1, Dundee 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 15% → 16% (+1.0 pts); Away win 66% → 65% (-1.3 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1556678,
  "home": "Dundee",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premiership",
  "league_api_id": 179,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1167,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-179-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "7.40",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.157,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.0% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Rangers 4-2-3-1, Dundee 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 15% → 16% (+1.0 pts); Away win 66% → 65% (-1.3 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}