Check any pick we ever made

{
  "away": "Pacific FC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0341,
  "explanation": "Draw: 15% against a market price of 12% (+3.4%).\nExpected goals Cavalry FC 1.84 – 0.91 Pacific FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 23% (uncertainty ±1.3%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+31% goals at home) takes 1.6 pts from draw.\nPacific FC's defence (1.27× the league rate against) takes 1.4 pts from draw.\nRest days (Cavalry FC 5, Pacific FC 6) adds 1.3 pts to draw.\nCavalry FC's attack (1.09× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from draw.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.4% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Pacific FC 4-2-3-1, Cavalry FC 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 79% → 77% (-2.4 pts); Draw 14% → 15% (+1.2 pts); Away win 7% → 8% (+1.2 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Draw.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1517369,
  "home": "Cavalry FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T20:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Canadian Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 479,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1176,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-479-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "6.76",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.1517,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "draw",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.4% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Pacific FC 4-2-3-1, Cavalry FC 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 79% → 77% (-2.4 pts); Draw 14% → 15% (+1.2 pts); Away win 7% → 8% (+1.2 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Draw.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}