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{
  "away": "Saint Etienne",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0097,
  "explanation": "Away win: 44% against a market price of 43% (+1.0%).\nExpected goals RED Star FC 93 1.25 – 1.68 Saint Etienne.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 47% (uncertainty ±7.6%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nSaint Etienne's attack (1.23× the league rate) adds 2.0 pts to away win.\nRED Star FC 93 missing 2.9 regular starters; Saint Etienne missing 1.5 regular starters adds 1.6 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) takes 1.0 pts from away win.\nSaint Etienne's defence (0.93× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.0%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Saint Etienne 4-2-3-1, RED Star FC 93 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 30% → 30% (-0.9 pts); Away win 43% → 44% (+1.3 pts).",
  "fixture": 1552501,
  "home": "RED Star FC 93",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ligue 2",
  "league_api_id": 62,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4336,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-62-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.16",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4433,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.0%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Saint Etienne 4-2-3-1, RED Star FC 93 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 30% → 30% (-0.9 pts); Away win 43% → 44% (+1.3 pts)."
}