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{
  "away": "Legia Warszawa",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0173,
  "explanation": "Away win: 37% against a market price of 39% (-1.7%).\nExpected goals Cracovia Krakow 1.48 – 1.42 Legia Warszawa.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 35% (uncertainty ±4.4%), so it carries 50% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) takes 3.4 pts from away win.\nLegia Warszawa's defence (0.89× the league rate against) adds 1.5 pts to away win.\nLegia Warszawa's attack (1.06× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nCracovia Krakow's attack (0.96× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.7%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Legia Warszawa 3-4-3, Cracovia Krakow 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 36% (+1.1 pts); Draw 28% → 27% (-0.9 pts).",
  "fixture": 1553191,
  "home": "Cracovia Krakow",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T18:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ekstraklasa",
  "league_api_id": 106,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3856,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-106-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.42",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3683,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.7%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Legia Warszawa 3-4-3, Cracovia Krakow 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 36% (+1.1 pts); Draw 28% → 27% (-0.9 pts)."
}