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Entry #724: pick published

Hash verified

Botafogo v Chapecoense-sc: Home win 68% @ 1.32 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T20:41:03.575728+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 512934cf2f1b27573a6d22f29410e99f2390012bea4f4d1e7b57bcb80db090ca
Stored hash: dfa86e6ed3424b335ed8c8be546fa81dd0bfea61467290b18d2ca830ca180eaf
Recomputed: dfa86e6ed3424b335ed8c8be546fa81dd0bfea61467290b18d2ca830ca180eaf

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Chapecoense-sc",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0489,
  "explanation": "Home win: 68% against a market price of 73% (-4.9%).\nExpected goals Botafogo 1.91 – 1.15 Chapecoense-sc.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 55% (uncertainty ±6.7%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+41% goals at home) adds 4.1 pts to home win.\nChapecoense-sc's defence (1.26× the league rate against) adds 2.9 pts to home win.\nBotafogo missing 3.2 regular starters: L. Monzon; Chapecoense-sc missing 1.5 regular starters: Marcinho takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nBotafogo's attack (1.08× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-4.9%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Chapecoense-sc 4-2-3-1, Botafogo 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 71% → 68% (-2.4 pts); Draw 18% → 19% (+0.8 pts); Away win 11% → 13% (+1.6 pts).",
  "fixture": 1492413,
  "home": "Botafogo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T21:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie A",
  "league_api_id": 71,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7318,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-71-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.32",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.6829,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-4.9%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Chapecoense-sc 4-2-3-1, Botafogo 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 71% → 68% (-2.4 pts); Draw 18% → 19% (+0.8 pts); Away win 11% → 13% (+1.6 pts)."
}

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