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{
  "away": "Lanus",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0071,
  "explanation": "Home win: 34% against a market price of 33% (+0.7%).\nExpected goals Platense 1.02 – 0.95 Lanus.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 35% (uncertainty ±5.3%), so it carries 36% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 2.7 pts to home win.\nPlatense's attack (0.91× the league rate) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nLanus's defence (0.94× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.7%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Lanus 4-2-3-1, Platense 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 33% → 34% (+0.7 pts).\nPick changed from Draw to Home win.",
  "fixture": 1493193,
  "home": "Platense",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T20:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
  "league_api_id": 128,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3329,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-128-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.82",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.34,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.7%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Lanus 4-2-3-1, Platense 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 33% → 34% (+0.7 pts).\nPick changed from Draw to Home win."
}