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{
  "away": "Defensores de Vilelas",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": 0.0378,
  "explanation": "Draw: 25% against a market price of 21% (+3.8%).\nExpected goals Gimnasia Chivilcoy 1.13 – 0.60 Defensores de Vilelas.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 32% (uncertainty ±2.5%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+74% goals at home) takes 2.9 pts from draw.\nDefensores de Vilelas's defence (1.27× the league rate against) takes 1.4 pts from draw.\nRest days (Gimnasia Chivilcoy 7, Defensores de Vilelas 7) adds 1.1 pts to draw.\nGimnasia Chivilcoy missing 0.9 regular starters; Defensores de Vilelas missing 2.7 regular starters adds 1.0 pts to draw.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.8% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Defensores de Vilelas, Gimnasia Chivilcoy.\nOur probabilities: Home win 68% → 64% (-3.7 pts); Draw 23% → 25% (+2.1 pts); Away win 9% → 11% (+1.6 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Draw.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1644453,
  "home": "Gimnasia Chivilcoy",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T21:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Torneo Federal A",
  "league_api_id": 134,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2096,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-134-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "4.08",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.2473,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "draw",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.8% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Defensores de Vilelas, Gimnasia Chivilcoy.\nOur probabilities: Home win 68% → 64% (-3.7 pts); Draw 23% → 25% (+2.1 pts); Away win 9% → 11% (+1.6 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Draw.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}