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{
  "away": "Fundacion Amigos",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.0065,
  "explanation": "Home win: 50% against a market price of 51% (-0.7%).\nExpected goals Atenas 1.34 – 0.80 Fundacion Amigos.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±7.6%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+74% goals at home) adds 5.5 pts to home win.\nFundacion Amigos's defence (0.86× the league rate against) takes 1.7 pts from home win.\nRest days (Atenas 6, Fundacion Amigos 6) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nAtenas missing 1.5 regular starters adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.7%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Atenas, Fundacion Amigos.\nOur probabilities: Home win 49% → 50% (+1.3 pts); Draw 31% → 29% (-1.2 pts).",
  "fixture": 1644452,
  "home": "Atenas",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T22:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Torneo Federal A",
  "league_api_id": 134,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5071,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-134-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.81",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.5006,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.7%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Atenas, Fundacion Amigos.\nOur probabilities: Home win 49% → 50% (+1.3 pts); Draw 31% → 29% (-1.2 pts)."
}