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{
  "away": "Tigres UANL",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0391,
  "explanation": "Away win: 26% against a market price of 22% (+3.9%).\nExpected goals Guadalajara Chivas 1.43 – 1.27 Tigres UANL.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 33% (uncertainty ±5.2%), so it carries 39% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+32% goals at home) takes 2.8 pts from away win.\nGuadalajara Chivas missing 3.5 regular starters; Tigres UANL missing 1.5 regular starters adds 1.8 pts to away win.\nGuadalajara Chivas's defence (0.89× the league rate against) takes 1.4 pts from away win.\nTigres UANL's defence (0.87× the league rate against) adds 1.4 pts to away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.9% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1, Guadalajara Chivas 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 49% → 48% (-1.4 pts); Away win 25% → 26% (+1.2 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1550996,
  "home": "Guadalajara Chivas",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T23:07:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga MX",
  "league_api_id": 262,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2203,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-262-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "4.10",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.2594,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.9% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1, Guadalajara Chivas 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 49% → 48% (-1.4 pts); Away win 25% → 26% (+1.2 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}