Check any pick we ever made

{
  "away": "DC United",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0191,
  "explanation": "Home win: 56% against a market price of 58% (-1.9%).\nExpected goals Orlando City SC 1.97 – 1.28 DC United.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 54% (uncertainty ±5.6%), so it carries 47% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 4.6 pts to home win.\nOrlando City SC's attack (1.10× the league rate) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nDC United's attack (0.88× the league rate) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nDC United's defence (1.08× the league rate against) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.9%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Orlando City SC 4-2-3-1, DC United 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 59% → 56% (-3.1 pts); Draw 21% → 22% (+0.8 pts); Away win 20% → 23% (+2.3 pts).",
  "fixture": 1490546,
  "home": "Orlando City SC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T23:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Major League Soccer",
  "league_api_id": 253,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5763,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-253-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.66",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.5572,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.9%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Orlando City SC 4-2-3-1, DC United 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 59% → 56% (-3.1 pts); Draw 21% → 22% (+0.8 pts); Away win 20% → 23% (+2.3 pts)."
}