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{
  "away": "Independiente Petrolero",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0117,
  "explanation": "Home win: 69% against a market price of 70% (-1.2%).\nExpected goals Blooming 2.43 – 1.17 Independiente Petrolero.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 64% (uncertainty ±7.7%), so it carries 19% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+57% goals at home) adds 3.6 pts to home win.\nIndependiente Petrolero's defence (1.11× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nBlooming missing 2.4 regular starters; Independiente Petrolero missing 5.2 regular starters adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nRest days (Blooming 6, Independiente Petrolero 5) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.2%).\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Independiente Petrolero 4-2-3-1, Blooming 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 67% → 69% (+1.8 pts); Draw 19% → 18% (-0.7 pts); Away win 13% → 12% (-1.1 pts).",
  "fixture": 1619332,
  "home": "Blooming",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T23:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 344,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7044,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-344-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.34",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.6927,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.2%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Independiente Petrolero 4-2-3-1, Blooming 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 67% → 69% (+1.8 pts); Draw 19% → 18% (-0.7 pts); Away win 13% → 12% (-1.1 pts)."
}