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{
  "away": "Rosario Central",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0053,
  "explanation": "Away win: 38% against a market price of 38% (-0.5%).\nExpected goals Atletico Tucuman 1.01 – 1.12 Rosario Central.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±6.6%), so it carries 41% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) takes 2.2 pts from away win.\nAtletico Tucuman missing 2.8 regular starters; Rosario Central missing 0.9 regular starters adds 1.3 pts to away win.\nRosario Central's attack (1.10× the league rate) adds 1.3 pts to away win.\nRosario Central's defence (0.92× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.5%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Rosario Central 4-2-3-1, Atletico Tucuman 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 32% → 31% (-1.1 pts); Away win 36% → 38% (+1.3 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 29% → 30%; Away win 39% → 38%.",
  "fixture": 1493182,
  "home": "Atletico Tucuman",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T23:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
  "league_api_id": 128,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3805,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-128-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.48",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3752,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.5%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Rosario Central 4-2-3-1, Atletico Tucuman 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 32% → 31% (-1.1 pts); Away win 36% → 38% (+1.3 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 29% → 30%; Away win 39% → 38%."
}