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{
  "away": "Inter Miami",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0352,
  "explanation": "Away win: 47% against a market price of 50% (-3.5%).\nExpected goals Atlanta United FC 1.78 – 1.77 Inter Miami.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 38% (uncertainty ±6.3%), so it carries 29% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nInter Miami's attack (1.33× the league rate) adds 3.0 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) takes 2.1 pts from away win.\nAtlanta United FC missing 0.6 regular starters; Inter Miami missing 2.6 regular starters: Y. Bright takes 1.7 pts from away win.\nAtlanta United FC's attack (0.89× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.5%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Atlanta United FC 4-3-3, Inter Miami 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 30% → 31% (+0.8 pts); Draw 22% → 22% (+0.7 pts); Away win 48% → 47% (-1.5 pts).",
  "fixture": 1490543,
  "home": "Atlanta United FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T23:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Major League Soccer",
  "league_api_id": 253,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5026,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-253-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.89",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4673,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.5%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Atlanta United FC 4-3-3, Inter Miami 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 30% → 31% (+0.8 pts); Draw 22% → 22% (+0.7 pts); Away win 48% → 47% (-1.5 pts)."
}