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{
  "away": "Hansa Rostock",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0059,
  "explanation": "Away win: 38% against a market price of 38% (-0.6%).\nExpected goals Alemannia Aachen 1.66 – 1.57 Hansa Rostock.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 36% (uncertainty ±7.0%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) takes 1.3 pts from away win.\nHansa Rostock's attack (1.08× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nHansa Rostock's defence (0.94× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nAlemannia Aachen's defence (0.95× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.6%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Hansa Rostock 4-2-3-1, Alemannia Aachen 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Draw 26% → 25% (-0.7 pts); Away win 37% → 38% (+1.1 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.",
  "fixture": 1584034,
  "home": "Alemannia Aachen",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "3. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 80,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3842,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-80-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.35",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3783,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.6%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Hansa Rostock 4-2-3-1, Alemannia Aachen 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Draw 26% → 25% (-0.7 pts); Away win 37% → 38% (+1.1 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win."
}