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{
  "away": "Preußen Münster",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0046,
  "explanation": "Home win: 44% against a market price of 43% (+0.5%).\nExpected goals SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1.89 – 1.54 Preußen Münster.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±8.1%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nPreußen Münster's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach missing 0.8 regular starters; Preußen Münster missing 2.6 regular starters adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach's attack (0.95× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.5%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Preußen Münster, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.\nOur probabilities: Home win 42% → 44% (+1.2 pts); Draw 25% → 24% (-0.8 pts).",
  "fixture": 1584038,
  "home": "SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "3. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 80,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4306,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-80-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.12",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4353,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.5%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Preußen Münster, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.\nOur probabilities: Home win 42% → 44% (+1.2 pts); Draw 25% → 24% (-0.8 pts)."
}