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{
  "away": "Luton",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0323,
  "explanation": "Home win: 31% against a market price of 28% (+3.2%).\nExpected goals Milton Keynes Dons 1.49 – 1.48 Luton.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 38% (uncertainty ±7.2%), so it carries 35% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+21% goals at home) adds 2.2 pts to home win.\nLuton's attack (1.14× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from home win.\nMilton Keynes Dons missing 4.2 regular starters; Luton missing 2.7 regular starters adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nMilton Keynes Dons's defence (1.05× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.2% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Luton 4-1-4-1, Milton Keynes Dons 3-1-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 30% → 31% (+1.2 pts); Away win 45% → 44% (-1.1 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1564360,
  "home": "Milton Keynes Dons",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "League One",
  "league_api_id": 41,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2824,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-41-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "3.26",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3147,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.2% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Luton 4-1-4-1, Milton Keynes Dons 3-1-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 30% → 31% (+1.2 pts); Away win 45% → 44% (-1.1 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}