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{
  "away": "Dunkerque",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0301,
  "explanation": "Away win: 21% against a market price of 18% (+3.0%).\nExpected goals Nantes 1.49 – 1.39 Dunkerque.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 35% (uncertainty ±8.3%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) takes 0.9 pts from away win.\nNantes missing 2.7 regular starters; Dunkerque missing 1.9 regular starters adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nRest days (Nantes 7, Dunkerque 8) takes 0.5 pts from away win.\nDunkerque's attack (1.05× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.0% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Nantes 3-4-3, Dunkerque 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities moved by less than half a point.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1552500,
  "home": "Nantes",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ligue 2",
  "league_api_id": 62,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1818,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-62-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "4.88",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.2119,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.0% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Nantes 3-4-3, Dunkerque 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities moved by less than half a point.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}