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{
  "away": "Charlton",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0007,
  "explanation": "Home win: 38% against a market price of 38% (+0.1%).\nExpected goals Watford 1.22 – 1.10 Charlton.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 38% (uncertainty ±5.9%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 2.2 pts to home win.\nWatford's attack (0.87× the league rate) takes 1.6 pts from home win.\nCharlton's attack (0.85× the league rate) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nWatford's defence (1.06× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.1%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Charlton 4-2-3-1, Watford 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 39% → 38% (-1.2 pts); Draw 29% → 28% (-0.6 pts); Away win 32% → 34% (+1.8 pts).",
  "fixture": 1563212,
  "home": "Watford",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Championship",
  "league_api_id": 40,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3775,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-40-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.50",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3783,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.1%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Charlton 4-2-3-1, Watford 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 39% → 38% (-1.2 pts); Draw 29% → 28% (-0.6 pts); Away win 32% → 34% (+1.8 pts)."
}