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{
  "away": "Rotherham",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0113,
  "explanation": "Home win: 41% against a market price of 42% (-1.1%).\nExpected goals Fleetwood Town 1.28 – 1.17 Rotherham.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±6.6%), so it carries 37% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+22% goals at home) adds 2.4 pts to home win.\nRotherham missing 3.4 regular starters takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nRotherham's defence (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.1%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Fleetwood Town 3-1-4-2, Rotherham 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 43% → 41% (-1.3 pts); Away win 31% → 32% (+1.4 pts).",
  "fixture": 1563806,
  "home": "Fleetwood Town",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "League Two",
  "league_api_id": 42,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4242,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-42-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.22",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4129,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.1%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Fleetwood Town 3-1-4-2, Rotherham 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 43% → 41% (-1.3 pts); Away win 31% → 32% (+1.4 pts)."
}