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{
  "away": "Shenyang Urban",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0496,
  "explanation": "Home win: 17% against a market price of 12% (+5.0%).\nExpected goals Qingdao Jonoon 1.41 – 1.29 Shenyang Urban.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±7.4%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+30% goals at home) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nQingdao Jonoon's attack (0.85× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from home win.\nQingdao Jonoon's defence (1.10× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nShenyang Urban's defence (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.0% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Shenyang Urban 3-4-3, Qingdao Jonoon 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 21% → 17% (-4.3 pts); Draw 22% → 20% (-1.3 pts); Away win 57% → 63% (+5.5 pts).",
  "fixture": 1523277,
  "home": "Qingdao Jonoon",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:35:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super League",
  "league_api_id": 169,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1208,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-169-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "7.11",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.1704,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 5.0% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Shenyang Urban 3-4-3, Qingdao Jonoon 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 21% → 17% (-4.3 pts); Draw 22% → 20% (-1.3 pts); Away win 57% → 63% (+5.5 pts)."
}