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{
  "away": "SJK",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0367,
  "explanation": "Home win: 54% against a market price of 50% (+3.7%).\nExpected goals Ilves 2.45 – 1.16 SJK.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 65% (uncertainty ±6.8%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nIlves's attack (1.26× the league rate) adds 2.4 pts to home win.\nRest days (Ilves 7, SJK 8) adds 2.2 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+19% goals at home) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nIlves missing 2.7 regular starters; SJK missing 5.3 regular starters adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Value: our 54% beats the market's 50%.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Ilves 3-4-2-1, SJK 3-1-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 53% → 54% (+1.1 pts); Away win 24% → 23% (-0.8 pts).\nTag changed from Avoid to Value.",
  "fixture": 1638089,
  "home": "Ilves",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Veikkausliiga",
  "league_api_id": 244,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5022,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-244-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.88",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.5389,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "value",
  "tag_reason": "our 54% beats the market's 50%",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Ilves 3-4-2-1, SJK 3-1-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 53% → 54% (+1.1 pts); Away win 24% → 23% (-0.8 pts).\nTag changed from Avoid to Value."
}