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{
  "away": "Sichuan Jiuniu",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0048,
  "explanation": "Home win: 58% against a market price of 58% (-0.5%).\nExpected goals Dalian Zhixing 1.95 – 1.09 Sichuan Jiuniu.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 56% (uncertainty ±8.0%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+30% goals at home) adds 2.8 pts to home win.\nDalian Zhixing missing 2.8 regular starters; Sichuan Jiuniu missing 3.8 regular starters adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nSichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.87× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nSichuan Jiuniu's defence (1.07× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.5%).\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Sichuan Jiuniu 4-1-4-1, Dalian Zhixing 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 55% → 58% (+2.3 pts); Away win 22% → 20% (-2.0 pts).",
  "fixture": 1523276,
  "home": "Dalian Zhixing",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super League",
  "league_api_id": 169,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5812,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-169-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.64",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.5764,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.5%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Sichuan Jiuniu 4-1-4-1, Dalian Zhixing 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 55% → 58% (+2.3 pts); Away win 22% → 20% (-2.0 pts)."
}