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{
  "away": "Cardiff",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0235,
  "explanation": "Home win: 61% against a market price of 64% (-2.3%).\nExpected goals Middlesbrough 1.88 – 1.16 Cardiff.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 53% (uncertainty ±7.8%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 2.0 pts to home win.\nMiddlesbrough's attack (1.12× the league rate) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nCardiff's defence (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nRest days (Middlesbrough 4, Cardiff 4) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.3%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Middlesbrough 4-2-3-1, Cardiff 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 59% → 61% (+2.1 pts); Draw 21% → 20% (-1.1 pts); Away win 20% → 19% (-1.0 pts).",
  "fixture": 1563207,
  "home": "Middlesbrough",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Championship",
  "league_api_id": 40,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6353,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-40-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.51",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.6118,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.3%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Middlesbrough 4-2-3-1, Cardiff 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 59% → 61% (+2.1 pts); Draw 21% → 20% (-1.1 pts); Away win 20% → 19% (-1.0 pts)."
}