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Entry #258: pick published

Hash verified

Tokyo Verdy v FC Tokyo: Home win 22% @ 5.07 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:00:19.537092+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 9f3a9a9c3e3d12878e0aab291e7397668c9ff7145c2a8a1de5e2a2df014b3570
Stored hash: 41940387606c346f7d2452a06c3101df51fbc02379f48f79336f4544f69f5b1e
Recomputed: 41940387606c346f7d2452a06c3101df51fbc02379f48f79336f4544f69f5b1e

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "FC Tokyo",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0459,
  "explanation": "Home win: 22% against a market price of 18% (+4.6%).\nExpected goals Tokyo Verdy 0.84 – 1.07 FC Tokyo.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 28% (uncertainty ±5.8%), so it carries 46% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nTokyo Verdy's attack (0.78× the league rate) takes 3.3 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nFC Tokyo's defence (0.92× the league rate against) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nFC Tokyo's attack (1.06× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.6% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1556100,
  "home": "Tokyo Verdy",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T05:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "J1 League",
  "league_api_id": 98,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.178,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "5.07",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2239,
  "season": 2027,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.6% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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