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{
  "away": "Kyoto Sanga",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0713,
  "explanation": "Away win: 19% against a market price of 12% (+7.1%).\nExpected goals Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.40 – 1.07 Kyoto Sanga.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 30% (uncertainty ±4.7%), so it carries 47% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nSanfrecce Hiroshima's defence (0.85× the league rate against) takes 2.2 pts from away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) takes 1.7 pts from away win.\nSanfrecce Hiroshima's attack (1.14× the league rate) takes 1.6 pts from away win.\nRest days (Sanfrecce Hiroshima 6, Kyoto Sanga 4) adds 1.3 pts to away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 7.1% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1556098,
  "home": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T05:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "J1 League",
  "league_api_id": 98,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1156,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "7.49",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.1869,
  "season": 2027,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 7.1% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}