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Entry #269: pick published

Hash verified

Erzurumspor FK v Eyüpspor: Home win 57% @ 1.60 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:00:40.919070+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: f8f45f1b6164708cd6c33e7b8effa6ac5f33a51638b1c1c2f188896db1c46001
Stored hash: 789b6e17552dd8cdb876d76e96b265ce4cebd5964e2ecebe0b0a6a1e19ad8bb4
Recomputed: 789b6e17552dd8cdb876d76e96b265ce4cebd5964e2ecebe0b0a6a1e19ad8bb4

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Eyüpspor",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0287,
  "explanation": "Home win: 57% against a market price of 60% (-2.9%).\nExpected goals Erzurumspor FK 1.25 – 0.98 Eyüpspor.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±10.7%), so it carries 16% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nErzurumspor FK's attack (0.71× the league rate) takes 1.9 pts from home win.\nEyüpspor's attack (0.73× the league rate) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nEyüpspor's defence (1.09× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.9%).",
  "fixture": 1584433,
  "home": "Erzurumspor FK",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T10:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Süper Lig",
  "league_api_id": 203,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5965,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-203-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.60",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5678,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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