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{
  "away": "Chornomorets",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0241,
  "explanation": "Home win: 56% against a market price of 58% (-2.4%).\nExpected goals Zorya Luhansk 1.15 – 0.85 Chornomorets.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±10.4%), so it carries 14% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nZorya Luhansk's attack (1.16× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nChornomorets's attack (0.84× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+7% goals at home) adds 0.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.4%).",
  "fixture": 1565498,
  "home": "Zorya Luhansk",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T10:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 333,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5845,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-333-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.62",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5604,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}