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{
  "away": "FC Minsk",
  "bookmakers": 2,
  "edge": 0.0173,
  "explanation": "Home win: 52% against a market price of 50% (+1.7%).\nExpected goals FC Isloch Minsk R. 1.76 – 0.85 FC Minsk.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 59% (uncertainty ±8.1%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nFC Isloch Minsk R.'s defence (0.75× the league rate against) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nFC Isloch Minsk R.'s attack (1.16× the league rate) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nRest days (FC Isloch Minsk R. 6, FC Minsk 7) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.7%).",
  "fixture": 1526004,
  "home": "FC Isloch Minsk R.",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T10:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 116,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5048,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-116-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.88",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5222,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}