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{
  "away": "Nagoya Grampus",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0187,
  "explanation": "Home win: 58% against a market price of 60% (-1.9%).\nExpected goals Kashiwa Reysol 1.75 – 1.05 Nagoya Grampus.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 54% (uncertainty ±6.9%), so it carries 29% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nKashiwa Reysol's attack (1.18× the league rate) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nRest days (Kashiwa Reysol 3, Nagoya Grampus 6) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nNagoya Grampus's defence (1.09× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.9%).",
  "fixture": 1556094,
  "home": "Kashiwa Reysol",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T10:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "J1 League",
  "league_api_id": 98,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6023,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.59",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5836,
  "season": 2027,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}