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Entry #265: pick published

Hash verified

Enisey v Torpedo Moskva: Home win 29% @ 3.57 (Upset Watch)

Written
2026-10-17T00:00:35.153668+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash
40d8ae9d8244d3858a72389ea832d82f73ad91bfae3cc5ef0d0a5447ec383636
Stored hash
a8faa4c0c62b6ea530a2adecb8418744044476a08732f473e88997393b786114
Recomputed
a8faa4c0c62b6ea530a2adecb8418744044476a08732f473e88997393b786114
Content, exactly as hashed
{
  "away": "Torpedo Moskva",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": 0.0327,
  "explanation": "Home win: 29% against a market price of 26% (+3.3%).\nExpected goals Enisey 0.95 – 0.92 Torpedo Moskva.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 34% (uncertainty ±5.0%), so it carries 43% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 2.7 pts to home win.\nTorpedo Moskva's defence (0.86× the league rate against) takes 2.0 pts from home win.\nTorpedo Moskva's attack (1.13× the league rate) takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nRest days (Enisey 3, Torpedo Moskva 7) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.3% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1577557,
  "home": "Enisey",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T08:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "First League",
  "league_api_id": 236,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2618,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-236-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "3.57",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2945,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.3% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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