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Entry #265: pick published
Hash verifiedEnisey v Torpedo Moskva: Home win 29% @ 3.57 (Upset Watch)
- Written
- 2026-10-17T00:00:35.153668+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
- Previous hash
- 40d8ae9d8244d3858a72389ea832d82f73ad91bfae3cc5ef0d0a5447ec383636
- Stored hash
- a8faa4c0c62b6ea530a2adecb8418744044476a08732f473e88997393b786114
- Recomputed
- a8faa4c0c62b6ea530a2adecb8418744044476a08732f473e88997393b786114
Content, exactly as hashed
{
"away": "Torpedo Moskva",
"bookmakers": 3,
"edge": 0.0327,
"explanation": "Home win: 29% against a market price of 26% (+3.3%).\nExpected goals Enisey 0.95 – 0.92 Torpedo Moskva.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 34% (uncertainty ±5.0%), so it carries 43% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 2.7 pts to home win.\nTorpedo Moskva's defence (0.86× the league rate against) takes 2.0 pts from home win.\nTorpedo Moskva's attack (1.13× the league rate) takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nRest days (Enisey 3, Torpedo Moskva 7) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.3% too long by the market.",
"fixture": 1577557,
"home": "Enisey",
"kickoff": "2026-10-17T08:30:00+00:00",
"league": "First League",
"league_api_id": 236,
"market": "1X2",
"market_probability": 0.2618,
"model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-236-v2)",
"odds_taken": "3.57",
"prediction_version": 1,
"probability": 0.2945,
"season": 2026,
"selection": "home",
"tag": "upset",
"tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.3% too long by the market",
"trigger": "scheduled",
"type": "pick"
}Latest entries
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