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{
  "away": "Bucheon FC 1995",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0358,
  "explanation": "Home win: 54% against a market price of 58% (-3.6%).\nExpected goals Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.35 – 0.98 Bucheon FC 1995.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±7.8%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRest days (Ulsan Hyundai FC 6, Bucheon FC 1995 8) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nUlsan Hyundai FC's attack (1.04× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nBucheon FC 1995's defence (1.03× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nUlsan Hyundai FC's defence (1.06× the league rate against) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.6%).",
  "fixture": 1507083,
  "home": "Ulsan Hyundai FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T07:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "K League 1",
  "league_api_id": 292,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5777,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-292-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.65",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5418,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}