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{
  "away": "Urawa",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0292,
  "explanation": "Away win: 43% against a market price of 46% (-2.9%).\nExpected goals Mito Hollyhock 1.13 – 1.17 Urawa.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±6.9%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) takes 1.1 pts from away win.\nMito Hollyhock's defence (1.09× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nMito Hollyhock's attack (0.93× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nUrawa's attack (1.03× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.9%).",
  "fixture": 1556096,
  "home": "Mito Hollyhock",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T07:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "J1 League",
  "league_api_id": 98,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4619,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.06",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4327,
  "season": 2027,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}