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Entry #262: pick published
Hash verifiedCerezo Osaka v Kawasaki Frontale: Away win 38% @ 2.35 (Avoid)
- Written
- 2026-10-17T00:00:29.379404+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
- Previous hash
- 9053f5fecb5b54ff50d17fb68b49ade6a4a74c9042a9ddfe42d00c2536ae3a1b
- Stored hash
- 3dd7cf8086bd46e1964006ebaf8c00e4d9e625d91716b0ba3fb3787ce1fa250d
- Recomputed
- 3dd7cf8086bd46e1964006ebaf8c00e4d9e625d91716b0ba3fb3787ce1fa250d
Content, exactly as hashed
{
"away": "Kawasaki Frontale",
"bookmakers": 6,
"edge": -0.0258,
"explanation": "Away win: 38% against a market price of 40% (-2.6%).\nExpected goals Cerezo Osaka 1.35 – 1.18 Kawasaki Frontale.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 33% (uncertainty ±5.9%), so it carries 34% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nKawasaki Frontale's attack (1.13× the league rate) adds 1.3 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) takes 1.3 pts from away win.\nKawasaki Frontale's defence (1.08× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from away win.\nCerezo Osaka's attack (1.06× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.6%).",
"fixture": 1556091,
"home": "Cerezo Osaka",
"kickoff": "2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00",
"league": "J1 League",
"league_api_id": 98,
"market": "1X2",
"market_probability": 0.4032,
"model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v1)",
"odds_taken": "2.35",
"prediction_version": 1,
"probability": 0.3775,
"season": 2027,
"selection": "away",
"tag": "avoid",
"tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.6%)",
"trigger": "scheduled",
"type": "pick"
}Latest entries
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