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{
  "away": "V-varen Nagasaki",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0118,
  "explanation": "Home win: 62% against a market price of 64% (-1.2%).\nExpected goals Kashima 1.78 – 0.90 V-varen Nagasaki.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 59% (uncertainty ±6.3%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nKashima's attack (1.16× the league rate) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nRest days (Kashima 4, V-varen Nagasaki 6) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nKashima's defence (0.89× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.2%).",
  "fixture": 1556093,
  "home": "Kashima",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "J1 League",
  "league_api_id": 98,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6351,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.51",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6233,
  "season": 2027,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}