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Entry #270: pick published

Hash verified

Dalian Zhixing v Sichuan Jiuniu: Home win 55% @ 1.68 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:00:42.343569+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 789b6e17552dd8cdb876d76e96b265ce4cebd5964e2ecebe0b0a6a1e19ad8bb4
Stored hash: 3fffa0facd3b18e5229e9e8c8a0419d80bef905ea24062d86e93deddd011c813
Recomputed: 3fffa0facd3b18e5229e9e8c8a0419d80bef905ea24062d86e93deddd011c813

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Sichuan Jiuniu",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0134,
  "explanation": "Home win: 55% against a market price of 57% (-1.3%).\nExpected goals Dalian Zhixing 2.13 – 1.56 Sichuan Jiuniu.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 50% (uncertainty ±8.7%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 2.4 pts to home win.\nSichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.89× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nDalian Zhixing's attack (0.92× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nSichuan Jiuniu's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.3%).",
  "fixture": 1523276,
  "home": "Dalian Zhixing",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super League",
  "league_api_id": 169,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5664,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-169-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.68",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.553,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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