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Entry #271: pick published

Hash verified

Ljungskile SK v IK brage: Home win 44% @ 2.11 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:00:44.357574+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 3fffa0facd3b18e5229e9e8c8a0419d80bef905ea24062d86e93deddd011c813
Stored hash: d2d12f25e17ea1328fd6feff44d5891b872c9151421b1bc5b49a898756d74b68
Recomputed: d2d12f25e17ea1328fd6feff44d5891b872c9151421b1bc5b49a898756d74b68

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "IK brage",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0012,
  "explanation": "Home win: 44% against a market price of 44% (+0.1%).\nExpected goals Ljungskile SK 1.52 – 1.18 IK brage.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±7.9%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nIK brage's defence (1.16× the league rate against) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nRest days (Ljungskile SK 6, IK brage 6) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nIK brage's attack (1.07× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.1%).",
  "fixture": 1497722,
  "home": "Ljungskile SK",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Superettan",
  "league_api_id": 114,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4433,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-114-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.11",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4444,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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