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Entry #272: pick published

Hash verified

FF Jaro v Mariehamn: Home win 43% @ 2.24 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:00:46.040069+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: d2d12f25e17ea1328fd6feff44d5891b872c9151421b1bc5b49a898756d74b68
Stored hash: 78afcb5b48afb9e97a6d0babb46f548a741da4f3390441d33389d5f971154829
Recomputed: 78afcb5b48afb9e97a6d0babb46f548a741da4f3390441d33389d5f971154829

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Mariehamn",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0077,
  "explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 42% (+0.8%).\nExpected goals FF Jaro 1.58 – 1.27 Mariehamn.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±8.4%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nMariehamn's defence (1.24× the league rate against) adds 2.2 pts to home win.\nFF Jaro's attack (0.84× the league rate) takes 1.9 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+17% goals at home) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nMariehamn's attack (0.84× the league rate) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.8%).",
  "fixture": 1638090,
  "home": "FF Jaro",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Veikkausliiga",
  "league_api_id": 244,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4198,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-244-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.24",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4274,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.8%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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