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Entry #273: pick published

Hash verified

Lahti v Turku PS: Home win 54% @ 1.68 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:00:47.692040+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 78afcb5b48afb9e97a6d0babb46f548a741da4f3390441d33389d5f971154829
Stored hash: bfcebd07463721fa4d4adc2806cdb25b0c904ce9deb9238333c4aa7c20973a6d
Recomputed: bfcebd07463721fa4d4adc2806cdb25b0c904ce9deb9238333c4aa7c20973a6d

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Turku PS",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0294,
  "explanation": "Home win: 54% against a market price of 56% (-2.9%).\nExpected goals Lahti 1.19 – 0.93 Turku PS.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 42% (uncertainty ±9.1%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+17% goals at home) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nTurku PS's defence (0.87× the league rate against) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nLahti's defence (0.82× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nLahti's attack (0.91× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.9%).",
  "fixture": 1638091,
  "home": "Lahti",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Veikkausliiga",
  "league_api_id": 244,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5648,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-244-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.68",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5354,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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