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Entry #1171: pick published

Hash verified

Machida Zelvia v Avispa Fukuoka: Home win 51% @ 1.86 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T06:41:03.414789+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 30468c11fd564aa9009cb1177f0addec5019f10cd156bde900bf4133396d12b6
Stored hash: 56570916c7ad23e4461bd5e25c66793350df90bf09806ec54065166a61aeae16
Recomputed: 56570916c7ad23e4461bd5e25c66793350df90bf09806ec54065166a61aeae16

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Avispa Fukuoka",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0065,
  "explanation": "Home win: 51% against a market price of 51% (-0.7%).\nExpected goals Machida Zelvia 1.41 – 0.91 Avispa Fukuoka.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±7.3%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+14% goals at home) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nMachida Zelvia's attack (1.13× the league rate) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nAvispa Fukuoka's attack (0.89× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nMachida Zelvia's defence (0.90× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.7%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Machida Zelvia 3-4-2-1, Avispa Fukuoka 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 52% → 51% (-1.8 pts); Away win 21% → 23% (+1.4 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 52% → 51%; Away win 21% → 22%.",
  "fixture": 1556095,
  "home": "Machida Zelvia",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T07:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "J1 League",
  "league_api_id": 98,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5125,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.86",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.506,
  "season": 2027,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.7%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Machida Zelvia 3-4-2-1, Avispa Fukuoka 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 52% → 51% (-1.8 pts); Away win 21% → 23% (+1.4 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 52% → 51%; Away win 21% → 22%."
}

#1170 #1172

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