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Entry #1190: pick published

Hash verified

FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC: Away win 21% @ 5.69 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T07:21:04.249165+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 2901a4fdfbd99d0e6671e1d352d4803fa7ffa2d6e567b90b19c60fe00fd318af
Stored hash: f86dd2d8d745539247062eb564baf89ff655632496665766b2b8351f5e572db7
Recomputed: f86dd2d8d745539247062eb564baf89ff655632496665766b2b8351f5e572db7

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Gimcheon Sangmu FC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0531,
  "explanation": "Away win: 21% against a market price of 15% (+5.3%).\nExpected goals FC Seoul 1.16 – 1.08 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 32% (uncertainty ±5.6%), so it carries 35% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRest days (FC Seoul 4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 8) adds 1.2 pts to away win.\nFC Seoul's attack (1.14× the league rate) takes 1.1 pts from away win.\nFC Seoul's defence (0.94× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+7% goals at home) takes 0.6 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.3% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: FC Seoul 4-4-2, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 52% → 54% (+2.0 pts); Draw 26% → 25% (-1.0 pts); Away win 22% → 21% (-1.0 pts).",
  "fixture": 1507082,
  "home": "FC Seoul",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T07:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "K League 1",
  "league_api_id": 292,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1545,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-292-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "5.69",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.2075,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 5.3% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: FC Seoul 4-4-2, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 52% → 54% (+2.0 pts); Draw 26% → 25% (-1.0 pts); Away win 22% → 21% (-1.0 pts)."
}

#1189 #1191

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