Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #1191: pick published

Hash verified

Gangwon FC v Incheon United: Away win 30% @ 3.40 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T07:21:05.068764+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: f86dd2d8d745539247062eb564baf89ff655632496665766b2b8351f5e572db7
Stored hash: c4757afc3adb87a52c12018c365c5f88f4f3a2363c1830f0e1bcf88c4dca00a7
Recomputed: c4757afc3adb87a52c12018c365c5f88f4f3a2363c1830f0e1bcf88c4dca00a7

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Incheon United",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0333,
  "explanation": "Away win: 30% against a market price of 27% (+3.3%).\nExpected goals Gangwon FC 1.23 – 1.17 Incheon United.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 34% (uncertainty ±4.9%), so it carries 49% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nGangwon FC's defence (0.92× the league rate against) takes 1.3 pts from away win.\nRest days (Gangwon FC 3, Incheon United 9) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+7% goals at home) takes 0.8 pts from away win.\nIncheon United's defence (0.95× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.3% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Gangwon FC, Incheon United.\nOur probabilities: Home win 41% → 40% (-0.6 pts); Draw 31% → 29% (-1.3 pts); Away win 29% → 30% (+1.9 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1507086,
  "home": "Gangwon FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T07:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "K League 1",
  "league_api_id": 292,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2708,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-292-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "3.40",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3041,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.3% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Gangwon FC, Incheon United.\nOur probabilities: Home win 41% → 40% (-0.6 pts); Draw 31% → 29% (-1.3 pts); Away win 29% → 30% (+1.9 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}

#1190 #1192

Latest entries

1212 in total