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{
  "combined_odds": "3.81",
  "combined_probability": 0.277626,
  "ev": 0.0569,
  "explanation": "Safe slip for Sun 18 Oct 2026: 3 legs, one per match.\nBookmaker pays 3.81. By our numbers the fair price is 3.60, so we rate the chance that every leg wins at 27.76% (about 1 in 3.6; likely range 26.92%–28.63%). The market's own prices imply 21.58%.\nChance that at least 2 of the 3 legs win: 72.3%.\nExpected value at the quoted price: +6% per unit staked. If every leg were 2 points less likely than we think, it would be -4%. Margin of safety: each leg's probability can be overstated by up to 1.2 points before this slip stops being a value bet.\nSuggested stake: 0.25 units (0.125 Kelly, capped; 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll).\n\nWhy these legs:\n1. FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.49 — our 69% vs the market's 63% (+5.6%), EV +3%. Banker: 69% likely, uncertainty only ±0.9%, market agrees.\n2. Kisvarda FC v Ferencvarosi TC: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.53 — our 66% vs the market's 61% (+4.6%), EV +1%. Banker: 66% likely, uncertainty only ±1.1%, market agrees.\n3. Alianza Atletico v Universitario: Under 9.5 corners @ 1.67 — our 61% vs the market's 56% (+5.5%), EV +2%. Banker: 61% likely, uncertainty only ±1.4%, market agrees.\n\nHow it was built: only legs tagged Banker/Value whose probability beats the QUOTED price (bookmaker margin included) by at least 1% over the de-vigged market; one leg per match, because two legs on the same match are correlated; at most 4 legs per league; legs chosen to maximise the chance of landing.\nHonest note: a 3-leg slip loses far more often than it wins. Expect it to land about 1 in 3.6; its value is long-run, across many slips, not this one. Matches are treated as independent; if any leg's team news, price or tag changes before the first kickoff, the slip is rebuilt and the change is shown here.\n\nWhat changed since v3:\nCombined odds 3.81 → 3.81; chance 27.22% → 27.76%; EV +4% → +6%.",
  "fair_odds": "3.6",
  "legs": [
    {
      "fixture": 1507082,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T07:30:00+00:00",
      "league": "K League 1",
      "market": "OU35",
      "market_probability": 0.6323,
      "match": "FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC",
      "odds": "1.49",
      "probability": 0.6883,
      "selection": "under",
      "tag": "banker"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1560256,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:00:00+00:00",
      "league": "NB I",
      "market": "OU35",
      "market_probability": 0.6131,
      "match": "Kisvarda FC v Ferencvarosi TC",
      "odds": "1.53",
      "probability": 0.6589,
      "selection": "under",
      "tag": "banker"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1549509,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T20:30:00+00:00",
      "league": "Primera División",
      "market": "COR9.5",
      "market_probability": 0.5567,
      "match": "Alianza Atletico v Universitario",
      "odds": "1.67",
      "probability": 0.6122,
      "selection": "under",
      "tag": "banker"
    }
  ],
  "replaces_seq": 1158,
  "slate": "2026-10-18",
  "slip": 41,
  "stake_units": 0.25,
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "slip",
  "variant": "safe",
  "variant_name": "Safe",
  "version": 4,
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nCombined odds 3.81 → 3.81; chance 27.22% → 27.76%; EV +4% → +6%."
}