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Entry #274: pick published

Hash verified

Krylia Sovetov v Fakel: Home win 48% @ 1.97 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:00:48.982476+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: bfcebd07463721fa4d4adc2806cdb25b0c904ce9deb9238333c4aa7c20973a6d
Stored hash: 67671c25b864e060b67bb2a33d5ad53a01ef6542555d01faf64e9f0b9de16c8d
Recomputed: 67671c25b864e060b67bb2a33d5ad53a01ef6542555d01faf64e9f0b9de16c8d

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Fakel",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.0156,
  "explanation": "Home win: 48% against a market price of 50% (-1.6%).\nExpected goals Krylia Sovetov 1.32 – 1.11 Fakel.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±9.5%), so it carries 18% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+21% goals at home) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nRest days (Krylia Sovetov 3, Fakel 4) takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nFakel's defence (1.13× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nFakel's attack (0.86× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.6%).",
  "fixture": 1561414,
  "home": "Krylia Sovetov",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 235,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4954,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-235-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.97",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4798,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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