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Entry #275: pick published

Hash verified

Grobiņa v Ogre United: Home win 51% @ 1.76 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:00:50.030124+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 67671c25b864e060b67bb2a33d5ad53a01ef6542555d01faf64e9f0b9de16c8d
Stored hash: 5c0decccae342daa530ce58e757be0fa6ad12540394ac8a81647790d22ec2382
Recomputed: 5c0decccae342daa530ce58e757be0fa6ad12540394ac8a81647790d22ec2382

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Ogre United",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0139,
  "explanation": "Home win: 51% against a market price of 53% (-1.4%).\nExpected goals Grobiņa 1.49 – 1.06 Ogre United.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 47% (uncertainty ±7.7%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nGrobiņa's attack (0.65× the league rate) takes 4.6 pts from home win.\nOgre United's defence (1.47× the league rate against) adds 3.5 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+28% goals at home) adds 2.4 pts to home win.\nOgre United's attack (0.82× the league rate) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.4%).",
  "fixture": 1515934,
  "home": "Grobiņa",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Virsliga",
  "league_api_id": 365,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5287,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-365-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.76",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5148,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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