Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #276: pick published

Hash verified

1. FC Kaiserslautern v VfL Bochum: Home win 43% @ 2.17 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:00:52.117482+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 5c0decccae342daa530ce58e757be0fa6ad12540394ac8a81647790d22ec2382
Stored hash: 056f319d6051b1f9aa7e39a253526787682627e0050c00cd804c5df8317acef0
Recomputed: 056f319d6051b1f9aa7e39a253526787682627e0050c00cd804c5df8317acef0

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "VfL Bochum",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0002,
  "explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 43% (+0.0%).\nExpected goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.44 – 1.16 VfL Bochum.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±4.9%), so it carries 48% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) adds 3.7 pts to home win.\nVfL Bochum's attack (0.94× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nVfL Bochum's defence (0.96× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nRest days (1. FC Kaiserslautern 8, VfL Bochum 6) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.0%).",
  "fixture": 1576202,
  "home": "1. FC Kaiserslautern",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "2. Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 79,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4332,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-79-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.17",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4334,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#275 #277

Latest entries

1229 in total