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Entry #277: pick published

Hash verified

FC UFA v Arsenal Tula: Home win 37% @ 2.87 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:00:53.173982+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 056f319d6051b1f9aa7e39a253526787682627e0050c00cd804c5df8317acef0
Stored hash: 9a900f0583c2879d955cf8c48dc5769e211e678fcc3dc82d46335791511848df
Recomputed: 9a900f0583c2879d955cf8c48dc5769e211e678fcc3dc82d46335791511848df

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Arsenal Tula",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": 0.0374,
  "explanation": "Home win: 37% against a market price of 33% (+3.7%).\nExpected goals FC UFA 1.24 – 0.74 Arsenal Tula.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 47% (uncertainty ±7.2%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 2.0 pts to home win.\nFC UFA's attack (0.89× the league rate) takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nRest days (FC UFA 6, Arsenal Tula 8) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nArsenal Tula's defence (1.09× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.7% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1577554,
  "home": "FC UFA",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "First League",
  "league_api_id": 236,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3285,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-236-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.87",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3658,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.7% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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